Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-07 206.277277 246.579822 295.122922 358.661138 440.778042 544.944178 6.897459e+02
2025-09-14 157.399447 204.571787 268.096622 362.460630 503.758480 715.784822 1.075735e+03
2025-09-21 131.895763 181.806821 254.638126 373.660048 574.020823 920.652345 1.627586e+03
2025-09-28 112.065762 161.214664 237.320026 371.125536 618.465112 1100.840159 2.262210e+03
2025-10-05 103.981210 155.955795 241.315638 403.040358 733.231807 1469.424459 3.633756e+03
2025-10-12 96.508808 149.928065 242.189389 428.880931 846.306606 1905.021165 5.740625e+03
2025-10-19 89.427426 143.136476 240.000668 447.720283 952.327646 2400.581857 8.927859e+03
2025-10-26 82.697358 135.772645 235.128195 459.364933 1046.730743 2943.198312 1.367301e+04
2025-11-02 76.147926 127.711269 227.327474 462.286566 1120.277158 3489.916476 2.038044e+04
2025-11-09 69.332226 118.214955 215.005421 451.427674 1150.467274 3911.384138 2.826613e+04
2025-11-16 63.435374 109.752046 203.494980 439.824510 1174.467642 4343.417988 3.923383e+04
2025-11-23 58.236239 102.057035 192.482478 426.978688 1189.930601 4765.868500 5.420519e+04
2025-11-30 57.155717 102.621306 199.967866 466.617430 1416.620040 6714.071716 1.339158e+05
2025-12-07 53.832449 98.194915 195.514432 472.054512 1521.056892 8164.498356 2.688834e+05
2025-12-14 51.453073 95.461680 194.574278 487.796118 1681.580317 10478.645127 7.244821e+05
2025-12-21 48.278687 90.661393 187.926017 484.237765 1755.824752 12309.060268 1.796661e+06
2025-12-28 47.750815 91.578788 195.540298 529.262526 2106.919902 18649.045315 2.859265e+07
2026-01-04 46.749796 91.308202 200.098050 565.982091 2457.489117 27579.137270 NaN
2026-01-11 45.361786 89.984100 201.665467 592.896623 2785.697875 39571.299216 NaN
2026-01-18 43.684318 87.796027 200.542686 609.591645 3072.433222 54840.794107 NaN
2026-01-25 41.722704 84.730381 196.519563 613.787393 3280.332133 71960.245310 NaN
2026-02-01 39.316742 80.370781 188.226566 598.207091 3322.076591 84128.867536 NaN
2026-02-08 37.082100 76.249927 180.140771 581.601961 3345.733093 97327.531694 NaN